Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, suggests that both stock and crypto market seasonality, combined with Bitcoin on-chain data, indicate that BTC’s price could consolidate for 4 to 5 months.
BTC continues to oscillate within cycle range highs
In his recent report, Edwards highlights Bitcoin’s consistent oscillation within the cycle range highs of $58,000 to $65,000, noting that continuous weekly closes above $58,000 are supportive of the long-term trend continuation.
Comparing Bitcoin’s price action to gold
Drawing parallels with gold’s historical price action, Edwards notes a striking similarity in the chart patterns between Bitcoin and gold, with Bitcoin potentially forming a “massive cup and handle” pattern over the last 13 years.
Bullish technical picture
Despite the possibility of a consolidation phase, Edwards maintains a bullish outlook, emphasizing the importance of Bitcoin holding above $58,000. He suggests that spending more time in the range highs could lead to the formation of a classic ‘cup and handle’ pattern, signaling strong price appreciation.
Observations from on-chain metrics
While Bitcoin’s Supply Delta and 90-Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metrics show rounded tops, indicating a mid-cycle pit stop, Edwards observes that most other metrics suggest the current cycle has significant room for growth.
Bitcoin’s macro index and market sentiment
Edwards closely monitors the Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index, indicating that BTC continues to exhibit a “risk-off” sentiment among investors, suggesting a focus on capital protection.
Agreement from ARK Invest
ARK Invest analysts support Edwards’ bullish sentiment, highlighting previous halving events as precursors to long-term momentum for BTC. They suggest a potential 3X increase in Bitcoin’s price post-halving, possibly leading to a parabolic uptrend topping between $180,000 and $200,000.
